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Friday, August 07, 2026

eToro, French Election Comment: Behind the Positive Headlines

Mati Greenspan, Senior Market Analyst, eToro

Everywhere we’re seeing reports that markets are celebrating on the back of Macron and Le Pen making it through to the second round. But it’s our sense this celebratory mood may be a bit premature. Indeed, investors on the eToro platform are less optimistic about the weeks running up to the next round elections. Currently 70% of traders on our platform who are dealing in French stocks are selling, with the large majority shorting the euro vs the US dollar. This goes against broader market reports that the euro is soaring and French stocks are up. Clearly, beneath those headline figures, some investors remain cautious.

Investors are avoiding investing in longer term positions while uncertainty prevails. It’s been suggested Le Pen has a 40% chance of winning the next round elections, leaving investors facing what feels like a coin toss choice between her and Macron when making investment decisions. Against this backdrop, we expect investors to continue to focus on short term market movements.

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